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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.